11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10

I've been drunk all these months. Let's go:

1. USC--Yeah, yeah, yeah: frosh QB, totally rebuilt front seven, mounting preseason injuries. The Trojans are as ripe-for-the-taking as they've been in years. Still, nobody in the conference can match USC in terms of raw talent. Whoever ends up getting the bulk of the snaps at QB is going to step into an absolutely ideal situation, with an old, excellent line; about 73 future top-100 draft picks joining him in the backfield; and, at the very least, Damian Williams to throw to. The defense will be fine, and USC will be one of the ten best teams in the country. Prediction: 10-2, 8-1 (7-2 and 9-0 both seem like longshots).

2. Cal--The Bears have to be optimistic about their Rose Bowl chances this year. They probably wouldn't trade in their secondary for USC's. Similarly, their D-line has plenty of experience and all-conference potential. The linebacking corps is fairly green, but it a)has talent, and b)is sandwiched between the other two units. The relative concern will be the offense, but having Jahvid "the" Best (and Shane Vereen in reserve) is a nice start. Losing Alex Mack (and another veteran starter) on the line won't be fun, but, due to injuries, they have six guys with significant playing time (most of whom are upperclassmen). The receivers are good enough. If Kevin Riley can hit on something higher than last year's 50% of passes, they'll be neck-and-neck with USC all year.
Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 (8-1 being more likely than 6-3).

3. Arizona--Losing the best QB in program history isn't fun. Losing a couple big-time linemen isn't fun. But Arizona returns a very good secondary, a solid LB crew, and an experienced D-line. The running backs are good; the receivers are good; the line, like Cal's, has some pieces to cobble together. If they can get general competence out of the new QB, they'll be very good.
Prediction: 8-4, 6-3 (5-4 being much more likely than 7-2).

3. Oregon--I don't really think the emperor's wearing any clothes with this team. They lose a couple 2nd-round picks from the secondary, three excellent D-line starters, and a linebacker for good measure. The O line loses just about everybody. There are some skill position returnees; but they also lost quite a few skill position guys. I dunno. They'll blow some teams out, but I think they're going to be in serious dogfights more frequently than a preseason top-15 team should be.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 (7-2 could happen, but 2-1 OOC could too).

5. Stanford--The Cardinal could very well go from "tough out" to the upper half of the conference. The defensive line, three short years removed from allowing about 2 million yards on the ground, is a strength(?!). The back seven is roughly "average" by conference standards, which is an improvement over years past. The O-line loses quite a bit, which should make life tougher on an downright good collection of running backs. In what seems to be a running theme in the conference, the Cardinal might start a totally inexperienced quarterback (although unlike the other schools, they have senior Tavita Pritchard waiting to take over if freshman Andrew Luck doesn't perform). Whoever plays, they'll have a decent, experienced set of receivers to throw to. Overall, Stanford has to be thinking bowl for the first time in almost a decade.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-4 (a reprise of last year's 5-7, 4-5 being about as low as they could go).

Later: Bottom 5