I'm going away for the weekend, so I wanted to get these in now:
-Georgia's gonna be good. Ten wins is very much a possibility, and I think they're Florida's best shot at a loss. The only thing really holding them back from full-blown national title contender in my eyes is a (commendably) nasty schedule.
-Notre Dame's gonna be good. They just have too much talent not to be. And it's not like you can accuse Chubby Charlie of never having won with good talent. 10 wins and a BCS slot seems likely.
-The ACC's gonna be good. If Miami's young players have their shit together, they're gonna be a godmonster. GaTech returns basically everybody. Clemson should make good on last year's promise. UNC and Florida State won't be fun to play. And of course VaTech will probably end up winning the whole ball of wax, again.
-Texas Tech's gonna be good. The offense will regress, naturally--but to like 480 yards/game and 35 points.
-Ole Miss will not win their division. I just can't see it.
-TCU will be the best "mid-major", but will come up short of BCS territory again.
K, that's it. Gotta run. Thank God for CFB.
Friday, September 4, 2009
11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10 (Part 2)
Continuing my last-minute, seat-of-my-pants Pac-10 football predictions:
6. Oregon State--Like their in-state rivals, I'm not really buying it with this team. Despite returning fewer than half their starters, they're hovering around the bottom of the polls to start the season. As far as I can tell, the thinking goes roughly "Mike Riley isn't fooling me again! The Beavers always get to 9 wins!" Of course, this ignores the downright ancient history that is 2005, when they had an inexperienced secondary and gave up a million yards through the air. They finished 5-6. This year they lose their entire secondary, as well as twenty-three sacks from the d-line. This is a team that's going to get thrown on. On offense, the left side of the line is gone, as are almost 2000 receiving yards. With the brothers Rogers (and Ryan McCants) back, they should be good on the ground, but seriously: if Riley can get this team to another 9 wins, he will deserve serious COTY honors.
Prediction: 7-5(4-5)
6. UCLA--They're still going with a bunch of young players, including a frosh QB (like, apparently, the rest of the conference). There's going to be much-needed upheaval on the O-line, but it can't get any worse. They're loaded with athletes; they're in the second year in the system; the defense actually qualifies as "good"; they're comically upset about being looked down upon; and, most importantly, there's no way the quarterbacks are going to do this again.
Prediction: 6-6(4-5)
8. Arizona State--They've got a pretty decent, experienced defense, some alright skill position players, and an O-line that improved by 21 sacks last year and figures to make another improvement this year. They're breaking in a new QB, but who isn't? They'll be a very tough out.
Prediction: 5-7(3-6)
9. Washington--They were really bad last year, and they have to adjust to a new coaching staff. Still, the Huskies return almost everyone on defense (including what should be a halfway decent front seven); general talent at the skill positions; an O-line that won't get any worse; and one of the biggest difference-makers in the conference in QB Jake Locker (who missed the final 8 games last year). This team will be leaps and bounds better.
Prediction: 3-9(2-7)
10. Washington State--I feel for Paul Wulff. This team still looks like it's a long way from competing in the conference. There's a paucity of athletes; they play @Washington; they were out-gained almost 2-to-1 last year; their projected QB had a 0:11 TD:INT ratio last year. This team can't be any worse, but they're probably not gonna surpass last year's 2 wins.
Prediction: 1-11(0-9)
6. Oregon State--Like their in-state rivals, I'm not really buying it with this team. Despite returning fewer than half their starters, they're hovering around the bottom of the polls to start the season. As far as I can tell, the thinking goes roughly "Mike Riley isn't fooling me again! The Beavers always get to 9 wins!" Of course, this ignores the downright ancient history that is 2005, when they had an inexperienced secondary and gave up a million yards through the air. They finished 5-6. This year they lose their entire secondary, as well as twenty-three sacks from the d-line. This is a team that's going to get thrown on. On offense, the left side of the line is gone, as are almost 2000 receiving yards. With the brothers Rogers (and Ryan McCants) back, they should be good on the ground, but seriously: if Riley can get this team to another 9 wins, he will deserve serious COTY honors.
Prediction: 7-5(4-5)
6. UCLA--They're still going with a bunch of young players, including a frosh QB (like, apparently, the rest of the conference). There's going to be much-needed upheaval on the O-line, but it can't get any worse. They're loaded with athletes; they're in the second year in the system; the defense actually qualifies as "good"; they're comically upset about being looked down upon; and, most importantly, there's no way the quarterbacks are going to do this again.
Prediction: 6-6(4-5)
8. Arizona State--They've got a pretty decent, experienced defense, some alright skill position players, and an O-line that improved by 21 sacks last year and figures to make another improvement this year. They're breaking in a new QB, but who isn't? They'll be a very tough out.
Prediction: 5-7(3-6)
9. Washington--They were really bad last year, and they have to adjust to a new coaching staff. Still, the Huskies return almost everyone on defense (including what should be a halfway decent front seven); general talent at the skill positions; an O-line that won't get any worse; and one of the biggest difference-makers in the conference in QB Jake Locker (who missed the final 8 games last year). This team will be leaps and bounds better.
Prediction: 3-9(2-7)
10. Washington State--I feel for Paul Wulff. This team still looks like it's a long way from competing in the conference. There's a paucity of athletes; they play @Washington; they were out-gained almost 2-to-1 last year; their projected QB had a 0:11 TD:INT ratio last year. This team can't be any worse, but they're probably not gonna surpass last year's 2 wins.
Prediction: 1-11(0-9)
Ugly Duckling
It's a strange experience, watching a story--and the reactions to that story--unfold from the very beginning. LeGarrette Blount was still skipping away--Byron Hout hadn't even hit the ground yet--when Oregon fans started disowning him. This is Google Trends' list of popular searches, about two hours post-game:
I think the strange part is knowing beforehand what people are going to be talking about tomorrow, before most of them know it (because, really, most people didn't stay up for that game).
Anyway, my condolences to the hundreds of people involved with Oregon football who aren't LeGarrette Blount. I get the impression that the Ducks, with their goofy uniforms and pinball offense, had built up a fair amount of goodwill amongst college football fans; this is, somewhat unfairly, going to undo a lot of that, even if/when Blount is removed from the team.
Some other thoughts:
-Think Phil Steele feels a tad triumphant tonight?
-I think, if Chip Kelly is worth his weight in feathers as a motivator, this loss could be very, very beneficial to the Ducks over the rest of the season. They're the laughingstock of CFB right now, and that "nobody respects us" nonsense really seems to play well among football players. At the very least, I expect Purdue to get hate-fucked next week.
-I was disappointed that Oregon didn't bust out the yellows for the blue turf. I was prepared to drop acid just to make some sense of it all.
-I don't really think this changes my outlook much for either team. This certainly looks like Boise's toughest game (ie. the best bet for that one loss I figure they'll end up with), but they still have trips to Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, and the all-bets-are-off netherrealm that is Hawai'i (although Hawai'i figure to be garbage this year). There's also the Nevada game looming at the other end of the schedule. Chris Peterson's Broncos really deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point, but I think the odds of them dropping one game are higher than going undefeated. (By the way, Boise also goes to Bowling Green, in Ohio. They put on a ton of miles this year.)
-As for Oregon, I dunno. I actually, inexplicably, might like their outlook better after this game than I did before it, because of the whole hypothetical "team coming together" nonsense that I speculated on earlier...(shitty, shitty writing alert) could this ugly duckling actually grow into a beautiful swan? (Sorry, I just really needed to put it out there, because some hack writer is going to use it in all seriousness at some point, and I want to take some small credit for it.)
Eh, probably not.
I still suspect they'll get their poop packed by Cal and USC, and there's a good chance there's another slip-up waiting somewhere on the sked, so for now I'm going to drop them from 9-3(6-3) to 8.5-3.5.
I think the strange part is knowing beforehand what people are going to be talking about tomorrow, before most of them know it (because, really, most people didn't stay up for that game).Anyway, my condolences to the hundreds of people involved with Oregon football who aren't LeGarrette Blount. I get the impression that the Ducks, with their goofy uniforms and pinball offense, had built up a fair amount of goodwill amongst college football fans; this is, somewhat unfairly, going to undo a lot of that, even if/when Blount is removed from the team.
Some other thoughts:
-Think Phil Steele feels a tad triumphant tonight?
-I think, if Chip Kelly is worth his weight in feathers as a motivator, this loss could be very, very beneficial to the Ducks over the rest of the season. They're the laughingstock of CFB right now, and that "nobody respects us" nonsense really seems to play well among football players. At the very least, I expect Purdue to get hate-fucked next week.
-I was disappointed that Oregon didn't bust out the yellows for the blue turf. I was prepared to drop acid just to make some sense of it all.
-I don't really think this changes my outlook much for either team. This certainly looks like Boise's toughest game (ie. the best bet for that one loss I figure they'll end up with), but they still have trips to Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, and the all-bets-are-off netherrealm that is Hawai'i (although Hawai'i figure to be garbage this year). There's also the Nevada game looming at the other end of the schedule. Chris Peterson's Broncos really deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point, but I think the odds of them dropping one game are higher than going undefeated. (By the way, Boise also goes to Bowling Green, in Ohio. They put on a ton of miles this year.)
-As for Oregon, I dunno. I actually, inexplicably, might like their outlook better after this game than I did before it, because of the whole hypothetical "team coming together" nonsense that I speculated on earlier...(shitty, shitty writing alert) could this ugly duckling actually grow into a beautiful swan? (Sorry, I just really needed to put it out there, because some hack writer is going to use it in all seriousness at some point, and I want to take some small credit for it.)
Eh, probably not.
I still suspect they'll get their poop packed by Cal and USC, and there's a good chance there's another slip-up waiting somewhere on the sked, so for now I'm going to drop them from 9-3(6-3) to 8.5-3.5.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
11th-Hour Predictions: Top-30 or so
A rough prediction of end-of-year (pre-CCG, 'cuz fuck those things) polls:
1. Florida (11-1)
2. Texas (11-1)
3-7ish. LSU (10-2)
USC (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
8-13ish Ole Miss (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
Clemson (10-2)
Cal (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Georgia Tech (10-2)
14-18ish Virginia Tech (9-3)
Georgia (9-3)
Boise State (11-1)
Oklahoma State (9-3)
West Virginia (10-2)
19-30ish Iowa (9-3)
Texas Tech (9-3)
Miami (8-4)
BYU (10-2)
USF (9-3)
Pitt (9-3)
TCU (10-2)
Rutgers (9-3)
Oregon (9-3)
Illinois (9-3)
Nebraska (9-3)
Kansas (8-4)
Arizona (8-4)
1. Florida (11-1)
2. Texas (11-1)
3-7ish. LSU (10-2)
USC (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
8-13ish Ole Miss (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
Clemson (10-2)
Cal (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Georgia Tech (10-2)
14-18ish Virginia Tech (9-3)
Georgia (9-3)
Boise State (11-1)
Oklahoma State (9-3)
West Virginia (10-2)
19-30ish Iowa (9-3)
Texas Tech (9-3)
Miami (8-4)
BYU (10-2)
USF (9-3)
Pitt (9-3)
TCU (10-2)
Rutgers (9-3)
Oregon (9-3)
Illinois (9-3)
Nebraska (9-3)
Kansas (8-4)
Arizona (8-4)
11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10
I've been drunk all these months. Let's go:
1. USC--Yeah, yeah, yeah: frosh QB, totally rebuilt front seven, mounting preseason injuries. The Trojans are as ripe-for-the-taking as they've been in years. Still, nobody in the conference can match USC in terms of raw talent. Whoever ends up getting the bulk of the snaps at QB is going to step into an absolutely ideal situation, with an old, excellent line; about 73 future top-100 draft picks joining him in the backfield; and, at the very least, Damian Williams to throw to. The defense will be fine, and USC will be one of the ten best teams in the country. Prediction: 10-2, 8-1 (7-2 and 9-0 both seem like longshots).
2. Cal--The Bears have to be optimistic about their Rose Bowl chances this year. They probably wouldn't trade in their secondary for USC's. Similarly, their D-line has plenty of experience and all-conference potential. The linebacking corps is fairly green, but it a)has talent, and b)is sandwiched between the other two units. The relative concern will be the offense, but having Jahvid "the" Best (and Shane Vereen in reserve) is a nice start. Losing Alex Mack (and another veteran starter) on the line won't be fun, but, due to injuries, they have six guys with significant playing time (most of whom are upperclassmen). The receivers are good enough. If Kevin Riley can hit on something higher than last year's 50% of passes, they'll be neck-and-neck with USC all year.
Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 (8-1 being more likely than 6-3).
3. Arizona--Losing the best QB in program history isn't fun. Losing a couple big-time linemen isn't fun. But Arizona returns a very good secondary, a solid LB crew, and an experienced D-line. The running backs are good; the receivers are good; the line, like Cal's, has some pieces to cobble together. If they can get general competence out of the new QB, they'll be very good.
Prediction: 8-4, 6-3 (5-4 being much more likely than 7-2).
3. Oregon--I don't really think the emperor's wearing any clothes with this team. They lose a couple 2nd-round picks from the secondary, three excellent D-line starters, and a linebacker for good measure. The O line loses just about everybody. There are some skill position returnees; but they also lost quite a few skill position guys. I dunno. They'll blow some teams out, but I think they're going to be in serious dogfights more frequently than a preseason top-15 team should be.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 (7-2 could happen, but 2-1 OOC could too).
5. Stanford--The Cardinal could very well go from "tough out" to the upper half of the conference. The defensive line, three short years removed from allowing about 2 million yards on the ground, is a strength(?!). The back seven is roughly "average" by conference standards, which is an improvement over years past. The O-line loses quite a bit, which should make life tougher on an downright good collection of running backs. In what seems to be a running theme in the conference, the Cardinal might start a totally inexperienced quarterback (although unlike the other schools, they have senior Tavita Pritchard waiting to take over if freshman Andrew Luck doesn't perform). Whoever plays, they'll have a decent, experienced set of receivers to throw to. Overall, Stanford has to be thinking bowl for the first time in almost a decade.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-4 (a reprise of last year's 5-7, 4-5 being about as low as they could go).
Later: Bottom 5
1. USC--Yeah, yeah, yeah: frosh QB, totally rebuilt front seven, mounting preseason injuries. The Trojans are as ripe-for-the-taking as they've been in years. Still, nobody in the conference can match USC in terms of raw talent. Whoever ends up getting the bulk of the snaps at QB is going to step into an absolutely ideal situation, with an old, excellent line; about 73 future top-100 draft picks joining him in the backfield; and, at the very least, Damian Williams to throw to. The defense will be fine, and USC will be one of the ten best teams in the country. Prediction: 10-2, 8-1 (7-2 and 9-0 both seem like longshots).
2. Cal--The Bears have to be optimistic about their Rose Bowl chances this year. They probably wouldn't trade in their secondary for USC's. Similarly, their D-line has plenty of experience and all-conference potential. The linebacking corps is fairly green, but it a)has talent, and b)is sandwiched between the other two units. The relative concern will be the offense, but having Jahvid "the" Best (and Shane Vereen in reserve) is a nice start. Losing Alex Mack (and another veteran starter) on the line won't be fun, but, due to injuries, they have six guys with significant playing time (most of whom are upperclassmen). The receivers are good enough. If Kevin Riley can hit on something higher than last year's 50% of passes, they'll be neck-and-neck with USC all year.
Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 (8-1 being more likely than 6-3).
3. Arizona--Losing the best QB in program history isn't fun. Losing a couple big-time linemen isn't fun. But Arizona returns a very good secondary, a solid LB crew, and an experienced D-line. The running backs are good; the receivers are good; the line, like Cal's, has some pieces to cobble together. If they can get general competence out of the new QB, they'll be very good.
Prediction: 8-4, 6-3 (5-4 being much more likely than 7-2).
3. Oregon--I don't really think the emperor's wearing any clothes with this team. They lose a couple 2nd-round picks from the secondary, three excellent D-line starters, and a linebacker for good measure. The O line loses just about everybody. There are some skill position returnees; but they also lost quite a few skill position guys. I dunno. They'll blow some teams out, but I think they're going to be in serious dogfights more frequently than a preseason top-15 team should be.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 (7-2 could happen, but 2-1 OOC could too).
5. Stanford--The Cardinal could very well go from "tough out" to the upper half of the conference. The defensive line, three short years removed from allowing about 2 million yards on the ground, is a strength(?!). The back seven is roughly "average" by conference standards, which is an improvement over years past. The O-line loses quite a bit, which should make life tougher on an downright good collection of running backs. In what seems to be a running theme in the conference, the Cardinal might start a totally inexperienced quarterback (although unlike the other schools, they have senior Tavita Pritchard waiting to take over if freshman Andrew Luck doesn't perform). Whoever plays, they'll have a decent, experienced set of receivers to throw to. Overall, Stanford has to be thinking bowl for the first time in almost a decade.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-4 (a reprise of last year's 5-7, 4-5 being about as low as they could go).
Later: Bottom 5
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