Friday, September 4, 2009

11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10 (Part 2)

Continuing my last-minute, seat-of-my-pants Pac-10 football predictions:

6. Oregon State--Like their in-state rivals, I'm not really buying it with this team. Despite returning fewer than half their starters, they're hovering around the bottom of the polls to start the season. As far as I can tell, the thinking goes roughly "Mike Riley isn't fooling me again! The Beavers always get to 9 wins!" Of course, this ignores the downright ancient history that is 2005, when they had an inexperienced secondary and gave up a million yards through the air. They finished 5-6. This year they lose their entire secondary, as well as twenty-three sacks from the d-line. This is a team that's going to get thrown on. On offense, the left side of the line is gone, as are almost 2000 receiving yards. With the brothers Rogers (and Ryan McCants) back, they should be good on the ground, but seriously: if Riley can get this team to another 9 wins, he will deserve serious COTY honors.
Prediction: 7-5(4-5)

6. UCLA--They're still going with a bunch of young players, including a frosh QB (like, apparently, the rest of the conference). There's going to be much-needed upheaval on the O-line, but it can't get any worse. They're loaded with athletes; they're in the second year in the system; the defense actually qualifies as "good"; they're comically upset about being looked down upon; and, most importantly, there's no way the quarterbacks are going to do this again.
Prediction: 6-6(4-5)

8. Arizona State--They've got a pretty decent, experienced defense, some alright skill position players, and an O-line that improved by 21 sacks last year and figures to make another improvement this year. They're breaking in a new QB, but who isn't? They'll be a very tough out.
Prediction: 5-7(3-6)

9. Washington--They were really bad last year, and they have to adjust to a new coaching staff. Still, the Huskies return almost everyone on defense (including what should be a halfway decent front seven); general talent at the skill positions; an O-line that won't get any worse; and one of the biggest difference-makers in the conference in QB Jake Locker (who missed the final 8 games last year). This team will be leaps and bounds better.
Prediction: 3-9(2-7)

10. Washington State--I feel for Paul Wulff. This team still looks like it's a long way from competing in the conference. There's a paucity of athletes; they play @Washington; they were out-gained almost 2-to-1 last year; their projected QB had a 0:11 TD:INT ratio last year. This team can't be any worse, but they're probably not gonna surpass last year's 2 wins.
Prediction: 1-11(0-9)

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