I'm going away for the weekend, so I wanted to get these in now:
-Georgia's gonna be good. Ten wins is very much a possibility, and I think they're Florida's best shot at a loss. The only thing really holding them back from full-blown national title contender in my eyes is a (commendably) nasty schedule.
-Notre Dame's gonna be good. They just have too much talent not to be. And it's not like you can accuse Chubby Charlie of never having won with good talent. 10 wins and a BCS slot seems likely.
-The ACC's gonna be good. If Miami's young players have their shit together, they're gonna be a godmonster. GaTech returns basically everybody. Clemson should make good on last year's promise. UNC and Florida State won't be fun to play. And of course VaTech will probably end up winning the whole ball of wax, again.
-Texas Tech's gonna be good. The offense will regress, naturally--but to like 480 yards/game and 35 points.
-Ole Miss will not win their division. I just can't see it.
-TCU will be the best "mid-major", but will come up short of BCS territory again.
K, that's it. Gotta run. Thank God for CFB.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Friday, September 4, 2009
11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10 (Part 2)
Continuing my last-minute, seat-of-my-pants Pac-10 football predictions:
6. Oregon State--Like their in-state rivals, I'm not really buying it with this team. Despite returning fewer than half their starters, they're hovering around the bottom of the polls to start the season. As far as I can tell, the thinking goes roughly "Mike Riley isn't fooling me again! The Beavers always get to 9 wins!" Of course, this ignores the downright ancient history that is 2005, when they had an inexperienced secondary and gave up a million yards through the air. They finished 5-6. This year they lose their entire secondary, as well as twenty-three sacks from the d-line. This is a team that's going to get thrown on. On offense, the left side of the line is gone, as are almost 2000 receiving yards. With the brothers Rogers (and Ryan McCants) back, they should be good on the ground, but seriously: if Riley can get this team to another 9 wins, he will deserve serious COTY honors.
Prediction: 7-5(4-5)
6. UCLA--They're still going with a bunch of young players, including a frosh QB (like, apparently, the rest of the conference). There's going to be much-needed upheaval on the O-line, but it can't get any worse. They're loaded with athletes; they're in the second year in the system; the defense actually qualifies as "good"; they're comically upset about being looked down upon; and, most importantly, there's no way the quarterbacks are going to do this again.
Prediction: 6-6(4-5)
8. Arizona State--They've got a pretty decent, experienced defense, some alright skill position players, and an O-line that improved by 21 sacks last year and figures to make another improvement this year. They're breaking in a new QB, but who isn't? They'll be a very tough out.
Prediction: 5-7(3-6)
9. Washington--They were really bad last year, and they have to adjust to a new coaching staff. Still, the Huskies return almost everyone on defense (including what should be a halfway decent front seven); general talent at the skill positions; an O-line that won't get any worse; and one of the biggest difference-makers in the conference in QB Jake Locker (who missed the final 8 games last year). This team will be leaps and bounds better.
Prediction: 3-9(2-7)
10. Washington State--I feel for Paul Wulff. This team still looks like it's a long way from competing in the conference. There's a paucity of athletes; they play @Washington; they were out-gained almost 2-to-1 last year; their projected QB had a 0:11 TD:INT ratio last year. This team can't be any worse, but they're probably not gonna surpass last year's 2 wins.
Prediction: 1-11(0-9)
6. Oregon State--Like their in-state rivals, I'm not really buying it with this team. Despite returning fewer than half their starters, they're hovering around the bottom of the polls to start the season. As far as I can tell, the thinking goes roughly "Mike Riley isn't fooling me again! The Beavers always get to 9 wins!" Of course, this ignores the downright ancient history that is 2005, when they had an inexperienced secondary and gave up a million yards through the air. They finished 5-6. This year they lose their entire secondary, as well as twenty-three sacks from the d-line. This is a team that's going to get thrown on. On offense, the left side of the line is gone, as are almost 2000 receiving yards. With the brothers Rogers (and Ryan McCants) back, they should be good on the ground, but seriously: if Riley can get this team to another 9 wins, he will deserve serious COTY honors.
Prediction: 7-5(4-5)
6. UCLA--They're still going with a bunch of young players, including a frosh QB (like, apparently, the rest of the conference). There's going to be much-needed upheaval on the O-line, but it can't get any worse. They're loaded with athletes; they're in the second year in the system; the defense actually qualifies as "good"; they're comically upset about being looked down upon; and, most importantly, there's no way the quarterbacks are going to do this again.
Prediction: 6-6(4-5)
8. Arizona State--They've got a pretty decent, experienced defense, some alright skill position players, and an O-line that improved by 21 sacks last year and figures to make another improvement this year. They're breaking in a new QB, but who isn't? They'll be a very tough out.
Prediction: 5-7(3-6)
9. Washington--They were really bad last year, and they have to adjust to a new coaching staff. Still, the Huskies return almost everyone on defense (including what should be a halfway decent front seven); general talent at the skill positions; an O-line that won't get any worse; and one of the biggest difference-makers in the conference in QB Jake Locker (who missed the final 8 games last year). This team will be leaps and bounds better.
Prediction: 3-9(2-7)
10. Washington State--I feel for Paul Wulff. This team still looks like it's a long way from competing in the conference. There's a paucity of athletes; they play @Washington; they were out-gained almost 2-to-1 last year; their projected QB had a 0:11 TD:INT ratio last year. This team can't be any worse, but they're probably not gonna surpass last year's 2 wins.
Prediction: 1-11(0-9)
Thursday, September 3, 2009
11th-Hour Predictions: Top-30 or so
A rough prediction of end-of-year (pre-CCG, 'cuz fuck those things) polls:
1. Florida (11-1)
2. Texas (11-1)
3-7ish. LSU (10-2)
USC (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
8-13ish Ole Miss (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
Clemson (10-2)
Cal (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Georgia Tech (10-2)
14-18ish Virginia Tech (9-3)
Georgia (9-3)
Boise State (11-1)
Oklahoma State (9-3)
West Virginia (10-2)
19-30ish Iowa (9-3)
Texas Tech (9-3)
Miami (8-4)
BYU (10-2)
USF (9-3)
Pitt (9-3)
TCU (10-2)
Rutgers (9-3)
Oregon (9-3)
Illinois (9-3)
Nebraska (9-3)
Kansas (8-4)
Arizona (8-4)
1. Florida (11-1)
2. Texas (11-1)
3-7ish. LSU (10-2)
USC (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-2)
Notre Dame (10-2)
8-13ish Ole Miss (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
Clemson (10-2)
Cal (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Georgia Tech (10-2)
14-18ish Virginia Tech (9-3)
Georgia (9-3)
Boise State (11-1)
Oklahoma State (9-3)
West Virginia (10-2)
19-30ish Iowa (9-3)
Texas Tech (9-3)
Miami (8-4)
BYU (10-2)
USF (9-3)
Pitt (9-3)
TCU (10-2)
Rutgers (9-3)
Oregon (9-3)
Illinois (9-3)
Nebraska (9-3)
Kansas (8-4)
Arizona (8-4)
11th-Hour Predictions: Pac-10
I've been drunk all these months. Let's go:
1. USC--Yeah, yeah, yeah: frosh QB, totally rebuilt front seven, mounting preseason injuries. The Trojans are as ripe-for-the-taking as they've been in years. Still, nobody in the conference can match USC in terms of raw talent. Whoever ends up getting the bulk of the snaps at QB is going to step into an absolutely ideal situation, with an old, excellent line; about 73 future top-100 draft picks joining him in the backfield; and, at the very least, Damian Williams to throw to. The defense will be fine, and USC will be one of the ten best teams in the country. Prediction: 10-2, 8-1 (7-2 and 9-0 both seem like longshots).
2. Cal--The Bears have to be optimistic about their Rose Bowl chances this year. They probably wouldn't trade in their secondary for USC's. Similarly, their D-line has plenty of experience and all-conference potential. The linebacking corps is fairly green, but it a)has talent, and b)is sandwiched between the other two units. The relative concern will be the offense, but having Jahvid "the" Best (and Shane Vereen in reserve) is a nice start. Losing Alex Mack (and another veteran starter) on the line won't be fun, but, due to injuries, they have six guys with significant playing time (most of whom are upperclassmen). The receivers are good enough. If Kevin Riley can hit on something higher than last year's 50% of passes, they'll be neck-and-neck with USC all year.
Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 (8-1 being more likely than 6-3).
3. Arizona--Losing the best QB in program history isn't fun. Losing a couple big-time linemen isn't fun. But Arizona returns a very good secondary, a solid LB crew, and an experienced D-line. The running backs are good; the receivers are good; the line, like Cal's, has some pieces to cobble together. If they can get general competence out of the new QB, they'll be very good.
Prediction: 8-4, 6-3 (5-4 being much more likely than 7-2).
3. Oregon--I don't really think the emperor's wearing any clothes with this team. They lose a couple 2nd-round picks from the secondary, three excellent D-line starters, and a linebacker for good measure. The O line loses just about everybody. There are some skill position returnees; but they also lost quite a few skill position guys. I dunno. They'll blow some teams out, but I think they're going to be in serious dogfights more frequently than a preseason top-15 team should be.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 (7-2 could happen, but 2-1 OOC could too).
5. Stanford--The Cardinal could very well go from "tough out" to the upper half of the conference. The defensive line, three short years removed from allowing about 2 million yards on the ground, is a strength(?!). The back seven is roughly "average" by conference standards, which is an improvement over years past. The O-line loses quite a bit, which should make life tougher on an downright good collection of running backs. In what seems to be a running theme in the conference, the Cardinal might start a totally inexperienced quarterback (although unlike the other schools, they have senior Tavita Pritchard waiting to take over if freshman Andrew Luck doesn't perform). Whoever plays, they'll have a decent, experienced set of receivers to throw to. Overall, Stanford has to be thinking bowl for the first time in almost a decade.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-4 (a reprise of last year's 5-7, 4-5 being about as low as they could go).
Later: Bottom 5
1. USC--Yeah, yeah, yeah: frosh QB, totally rebuilt front seven, mounting preseason injuries. The Trojans are as ripe-for-the-taking as they've been in years. Still, nobody in the conference can match USC in terms of raw talent. Whoever ends up getting the bulk of the snaps at QB is going to step into an absolutely ideal situation, with an old, excellent line; about 73 future top-100 draft picks joining him in the backfield; and, at the very least, Damian Williams to throw to. The defense will be fine, and USC will be one of the ten best teams in the country. Prediction: 10-2, 8-1 (7-2 and 9-0 both seem like longshots).
2. Cal--The Bears have to be optimistic about their Rose Bowl chances this year. They probably wouldn't trade in their secondary for USC's. Similarly, their D-line has plenty of experience and all-conference potential. The linebacking corps is fairly green, but it a)has talent, and b)is sandwiched between the other two units. The relative concern will be the offense, but having Jahvid "the" Best (and Shane Vereen in reserve) is a nice start. Losing Alex Mack (and another veteran starter) on the line won't be fun, but, due to injuries, they have six guys with significant playing time (most of whom are upperclassmen). The receivers are good enough. If Kevin Riley can hit on something higher than last year's 50% of passes, they'll be neck-and-neck with USC all year.
Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 (8-1 being more likely than 6-3).
3. Arizona--Losing the best QB in program history isn't fun. Losing a couple big-time linemen isn't fun. But Arizona returns a very good secondary, a solid LB crew, and an experienced D-line. The running backs are good; the receivers are good; the line, like Cal's, has some pieces to cobble together. If they can get general competence out of the new QB, they'll be very good.
Prediction: 8-4, 6-3 (5-4 being much more likely than 7-2).
3. Oregon--I don't really think the emperor's wearing any clothes with this team. They lose a couple 2nd-round picks from the secondary, three excellent D-line starters, and a linebacker for good measure. The O line loses just about everybody. There are some skill position returnees; but they also lost quite a few skill position guys. I dunno. They'll blow some teams out, but I think they're going to be in serious dogfights more frequently than a preseason top-15 team should be.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 (7-2 could happen, but 2-1 OOC could too).
5. Stanford--The Cardinal could very well go from "tough out" to the upper half of the conference. The defensive line, three short years removed from allowing about 2 million yards on the ground, is a strength(?!). The back seven is roughly "average" by conference standards, which is an improvement over years past. The O-line loses quite a bit, which should make life tougher on an downright good collection of running backs. In what seems to be a running theme in the conference, the Cardinal might start a totally inexperienced quarterback (although unlike the other schools, they have senior Tavita Pritchard waiting to take over if freshman Andrew Luck doesn't perform). Whoever plays, they'll have a decent, experienced set of receivers to throw to. Overall, Stanford has to be thinking bowl for the first time in almost a decade.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-4 (a reprise of last year's 5-7, 4-5 being about as low as they could go).
Later: Bottom 5
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